HUFFPOLLSTER: Most Americans Agree That Basic Facts Are In Dispute In This Election
Americans aren’t in a particularly united state. Voters are expecting a victory for Hillary Clinton. And parents don’t want their kids to grow up like Donald Trump. This is HuffPollster for Monday, October 17, 2016.
AMERICANS CAN’T AGREE ON BASIC FACTS – HuffPollster: “If there’s one thing Hillary Clinton’s and Donald Trump’s supporters have in common, it’s this: Each side thinks the other is not only wrong, but completely divorced from reality. Eighty-one percent of registered voters say that most Trump and Clinton supporters ‘not only disagree over plans and policies, but also cannot agree on basic facts, according to a new Pew Research survey. Just 18 percent think they ‘can agree on basic facts, even if they often disagree over plans.’ ‘Ironically, this is a rare point of agreement among the supporters of Clinton and Trump,’ the survey report notes. ‘Comparably large shares of registered voters who back Clinton (80%) and Trump (81%) say the two sides are unable to agree on basic facts.’ Although this is the first time Pew has asked that question, there’s reason to suspect the inability to agree even on objective reality is heightened in this election compared with past cycles.” [HuffPost]
They’re losing faith in democracy, too – Nathaniel Persily and Jon Cohen: “Large numbers of Americans across party lines have lost faith in their democracy, and many will not accept the legitimacy of this election. Those were the stark findings from a survey we performed from Oct. 6 through Oct. 8 of more than 3,000 registered voters, fully 40 percent of whom say: ‘I have lost faith in American democracy.’ Six percent indicate they’ve never had faith in the system. Overall, barely more than half — just 52 percent — say, ‘I have faith in American democracy.’… More than 6 in 10 voters backing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton express faith in U.S. democracy, compared with just over 4 in 10 of those backing her Republican rival…. When asked in this SurveyMonkey Election Tracking poll if they would accept the result should their candidate lose in November, just 31 percent say they definitely would see the outcome as legitimate. Nearly as many (28 percent) say it is either “unlikely” that they would accept the result or that they definitely would not.” [WashPost]
Half of Trump supporters aren’t confident ballots will be counted correctly. [Morning Consult]
MOST REPUBLICANS ARE STILL BACKING TRUMP – HuffPollster: “[D]espite the wave of high-profile defections, the bulk of the GOP is sticking with Trump ― a man who, besides being accused of sexual assault, has publicly trashed the party, disparaged its members, broken with many of its most cherished political planks and shattered its attempts to win over minorities and women. As of Thursday, TIME magazine found that 72 percent of Republican officeholders were still supporting Trump to some extent….While Trump is lagging badly in the polls and even seeing his image slide among Republicans, the party’s voters are still mostly sticking with him. About 78 percent of Republicans say in an average of head-to-head polling that they support Trump over Clinton….In a HuffPost/YouGov survey taken last week, 58 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters agreed that ‘[t]he worst member of the Republican Party is still better than the best member of the Democratic Party.’ Nearly three quarters said that Trump, whatever they thought of him, would make a better president than Clinton, with 55 percent saying that he would be ‘much better.’ That’s enough motivation for many of his remaining supporters to rationalize away some of his behavior.” [HuffPost]
But the support he’s lost takes him even further from victory – HuffPollster: “The evidence is still coming in, but polls so far suggest that the tape of Donald Trump discussing sexual assault and the ensuing accusations didn’t cause support for the GOP presidential nominee to collapse. Instead, the week’s events seem to have reinforced a downward trend that started at the beginning of the month…. According to HuffPost Pollster’s trend for the two-way Hillary Clinton vs. Trump race, Trump’s numbers began dropping at the end of September after briefly rising as high as 43 percent. He’s at [roughly] 41 percent now ― a small but significant decline. In polls including third-party candidates, there’s been essentially no movement: Trump is stuck between 38 and 39 percent…. It’s possible that Trump’s numbers won’t fall any further and might even increase slightly simply because he’s already this far down…. If the controversy quiets down, some less strident supporters might come back as we’ve seen happen after previous Trump scandals. But the numbers aren’t likely to come back up much. For one thing, the Trump campaign isn’t showing any signs of trying to repair the damage.” [HuffPost]
Sunday’s poll releases continued to show Clinton leading. [HuffPost]
CLINTON LEADS BY 50 POINTS AMONG LATINO VOTERS – Carrie Dann: “Hillary Clinton is maintaining a 50-point lead over Donald Trump among Latino voters heading into the final weeks of the presidential election, and more Latinos now say they they’re very interested in the November contest, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll. The poll found that 67 percent of Latino likely voters back Clinton in a four-way matchup, while just 17 percent back Trump. Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein each garner three percent support….the new data also show that interest in the election among Latinos has increased. That’s a boon for the Democratic candidate as she works to build a winning coalition in an election cycle that pits two historically unpopular candidates against each other. What’s more, the increase in interest in the election among Latinos has come largely from groups most likely to support Clinton, including younger voters, Democratic-leaning Latinos and those who speak primarily Spanish.” [NBC]
VOTERS EXPECT CLINTON TO WIN – From a new GW Battleground Poll: “Hillary Clinton is beginning to pull away from Donald Trump in the presidential race, according to the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll….The poll was conducted Oct. 8-13, after a tape of Trump from “Access Hollywood” came to light, and spanned the second presidential debate. Amid those campaign milestones, the GW Battleground Poll found a clear majority of voters (62 percent) think Clinton will win, while less than a third (27 percent) believe Trump will take the presidency….Clinton supporters are much more confident in their choice than others polled….Almost nine out of 10 respondents (89 percent) who will vote for Clinton believe the former secretary of state will win. Sixty percent of Trump supporters think he will win, while more than a quarter (27 percent) of the businessman’s backers believe Clinton will win instead. Most third-party supporters believe Clinton will win (Johnson voters: 72 percent; Stein voters: 64).” [GWU]
FORECAST UPDATE – Hillary Clinton has an 92.7 percent chance of winning the presidential election. Republicans have a 62 percent chance of keeping the Senate. [Presidential forecast, Senate forecast]
PARENTS DON’T WANT THEIR KIDS LOOKING UP TO TRUMP – HuffPollster: “A 75 percent majority of Americans who have kids under the age of 18 say Trump is not a good role model for children, while just 12 percent say he is. In contrast, opinions on Clinton are about evenly split, with 42 percent saying she is a good role model and 43 percent saying she isn’t. GOP parents are considerably less likely to want their children looking up to their party’s nominee. While nearly 7 in 10 Democratic and Democratic-leaning parents think Clinton is a good role model, fewer than one-quarter of Republican and Republican-leaning parents say the same about Trump….Even if they don’t want to see their children grow up emulating Trump, however, most parents aren’t too concerned about the effect the election is having on their kids. Forty-nine percent of parents say they’re ‘very comfortable’ talking with their kids about the election, while 86 percent are at least somewhat comfortable doing so. A small group ― 11 percent ― say their kids are disturbed or upset by the elections….However, 50 percent of parents say their kids are aware of the election but not troubled by it, while 28 percent say their kids aren’t paying much attention at all, and 11 percent aren’t sure what their kids think.” [HuffPost]
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MONDAY’S ‘OUTLIERS’ – Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-Michael P. McDonald’s early vote analysis finds Hillary Clinton poised to outperform Barack Obama in Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, with Donald Trump looking to exceed Mitt Romney in the Midwest. [HuffPost]
-Voters aren’t buying Trump’s excuses for his behavior in the leaked 2005 tape. [HuffPost]
-Keith Gaddie and Kirby Goidel give some historical context to Evan McMullin’s role as a potential Utah “spoiler.” [HuffPost]
-Michael Tesler finds that Trump’s supporters were already more likely to doubt women’s claims of sexual assault. [WashPost]
-Nicholas Confessore and Karen Yourish quantify Trump’s free medial advantage. [NYT]
-Nate Silver takes a look at the race three weeks out. 
-Chase Stuart singles out the NFL’s most run-heavy and pass-happy teams. 
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